spend matters spend matters About this site

Want to reach procurement and supply chain decision-makers?

Advertise with Spend Matters Navigator
 

May 17, 2008

 

Where Will Steel, Stainless, Nickel, Aluminum, Copper and Zinc go in 2008?

What Will 2008 Bring in the Metals Markets? Earlier today, Lisa Reisman and Stuart Burns penned a thoughtful and lengthy post over on Metal Miner offering up their predictions for the metals markets in 2008. Among the metals categories they take their crystal ball to, the two examine where steel, stainless, nickel, aluminum, copper and zinc prices might be headed to on a global basis. In the same article, they also tackle the impact of a falling dollar and rising oil prices on global metals sourcing. What are some the assumptions driving the forecasts they present in their post? According to the metals blogging dynamic duo, “In the face of a slowing US economy, a mixed position for the European economies and a still strong Asian market, it is a particularly tough call this year to judge where prices will go. Our call is the US will teeter on recession. Europe though restricted by high ECB interest rates will still enjoy some (if reduced) growth providing the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate does not strangle exports. Asia in general and China in particular are still enjoying robust growth. China may well drop from the double digit growth of the last 5 years to high single digit figures but that is still a very significant driver for the world economy and particularly the world metal markets.”

Reading Stuart and Lisa reminds me about how much domain knowledge really counts in analyzing and covering specific commodities markets. Call me biased -- yes, I am married to one of the authors -- but relative to the price alerts and regurgitated crap that only mildly passes for journalism that the trades put out on metals, there's no substitute for the type of coverage that only true industry experience can bring to the table. Seriously, do we really want to know that the sky is falling and copper is up today, or do we care about why and where it might go tomorrow -- and what to do about it from a sourcing and trading perspective?

- Jason Busch

Thinking Sourcing While Getting Lean

Over on Sourcing Innovation, Michael Lamoureux plugs the concept of Lean Sourcing, which combines elements of strategic sourcing and lean manufacturing to reduce the total landed / manufactured costs for materials (full disclosure: I have a financial interest in the concept he is plugging through my wife's consulting firm). Far beyond self interest, however, I firmly believe that in the years to come, we'll see a global environment ripe with opportunity for cost takeout opportunities for large and small manufacturers alike. But once companies achieve a degree of cost savings through deploying lean and strategic sourcing individually, they'll need to combine both elements to achieve next level savings.

For example, it will no longer be enough to optimize for lowest total landed cost on a delivered unit basis without taking into account additional value-added capabiliites that a supplier can offer such as vendor managed inventory (VMI) or just-in-time (JIT) sequencing. Only by truly understanding the components of a lean operating environment and combining rigorous, analytical- and process-driven sourcing methodologies will manufacturers truly be able to maximize their cost and risk reduction opportunities. And what's most interesting here, is that the opportunity is not so much around technology -- granted, better total cost management and scenario building / risk modeling tools would be nice -- but from an operational and educational perspective. Mandatory lean -- not to mention Six Sigma -- training for procurement, anyone?

- Jason Busch

Solectron's Lean Adventure

I found an insightful article in Purchasing this morning that shows further evidence that procurement and supply chain are coming closer together. Titled Lean Drives Solectron’s Sourcing the article describes how "commodity teams will become more important as [the firm] moves to Lean production, which began about two years ago. It is relying on suppliers that can help support its Lean initiative ... Solectron has already done more than 1,000 kaizen events with suppliers to identify areas of waste that can be eliminated in Solectron's or the supplier's business processes. Eliminating waste is a key part of Lean manufacturing."

Solectron's lean manufacturing initiatives are changing how suppliers interact with the contract manufacturer. Suppliers must now deliver in smaller quantities at greater frequency than in the past: "A few years ago, Solectron had warehouses which took delivery of large volumes of parts from suppliers. Today, as a result of Lean, Solectron has closed many warehouses and has a "supermarket" on its manufacturing floor where parts are now stored. The supermarket doesn't have as much space as a warehouse so suppliers have to make more frequent deliveries of smaller quantities of parts. Solectron now has 50% of its parts in supermarkets compared to about 15% in 2003."

Solectron's embrace of lean and strategic sourcing in the procurement process is an early example of a global industry leader that is truly examining the total cost of doing business. For some, this might represent a quintessential reading of Spend Management and Six Sigma principles. But most important, it shows how a firm can get the most out every penny it spends. Benjamin Franklin would be proud!

- Jason Busch

Reverse Auction Critics Gone Wild

Since I first wrote about reverse auctions in Information Week in 1999, I've been a staunch proponent of their use and effectiveness. But that's not to say that all companies use them correctly or maximize the potential savings and value they can create. Their misuse, has in fact, sparked a small critics' circle that abhors their very existence. This sub-culture counts such pundits as David Stec and Bob Emiliani of The Center For Lean Business Management as card carrying members. Now, this is a free country, and in a true libertarian free market sense, I believe that everyone is allowed to have their own opinion. But all too often, criticism is founded out of self-interest. In my view, as Stec and Emiliani attempt to drive down the value of "sourcing, online sourcing, sourcing event[s], online transaction[s], e-sourcing, supplier e-connection, or strategic sourcing" through their research, they also drive up the potential audience for the "lean" services and training that they provide (they do not, as they point out on the site, provide reverse auction consulting services). A parting thought: while Stec and Emiliani would disagree, I believe that lean and strategic sourcing / reverse auctions are not necessarily in conflict. My wife, who has a Six Sigma blackbelt, co-authored a recent whitepaper arguing this very point. Maybe we can get a good discussion going at Spend Matters about this very topic.

- Jason Busch

The Intersection of Lean and Strategic Sourcing

I just read a unique whitepaper that argues that lean and strategic sourcing are not in conflict. Of course, in the spirit of full disclosure, you might want to discount my objectivity on this blog post as heavily as the early reports that show Hillary defeating Condi in the 2008 elections. Yes, as some of you know, I'm rather close to one of the authors of the paper, which might cloud my credibility to speak objectively on the subject. But still, I think the paper offers a fascinating perspective on how lean and strategic sourcing can, in fact, work together to create new levels of savings for organizations.

- Jason Busch

Lean Sourcing — Moving From Single to Double Digit Savings

Today, I've asked Lisa Reisman to submit a guest blog on lean sourcing. While Lisa holds a Six Sigma black belt, she’s also a believer in competitive negotiations and strategic sourcing. Lisa is a Managing Director at Aptium Global and is also a Director and board member of Azul Partners.

Lean manufacturing principles suggest that buyers should create close relationships with their suppliers. The number of suppliers should be few, as opposed to many and should be strategic in the sense that buyers and suppliers jointly work together. Under such circumstances the argument goes savings are achieved through the development of supply kanbans, JIT programs, joint cost take out programs and collaborative product development etc.

These are proven concepts. The point, however, that is often missing in any discussion around lean is how buyers actually identify their strategic suppliers in the first place. To select and develop a long term partner, buyers should first go wide and competitively search the whole (global) market and only then go deep focussing on those suppliers who have proved their ability to compete, offer quality product and meet tough delivery requirements.

Think of the process as scanning the radio for a station first, and then fine tuning for the greatest clarity.

The narrowing down of the many to the few can be done via competitive bidding events which receive only a mixed reception from suppliers. Some rightly recognise that the open bidding environment gives them instant market feedback and a ready introduction to new clients without the effort of a conventional marketing approach. Others have had bad experiences from bidding events run without strict marketplace rules or without a thorough quality analysis of potential bidders. These events are intended to beat down incumbent suppliers rather than to genuinely seek new competitive sources of supply.

A lean sourcing approach involves a combination of competitive bidding and running a professional, ethical and fair event, which supports suppliers and adheres to the best principals of supplier-buyer lean relationships. Typically such events should have detailed RFQ's and drawings or technical specifications thus enabling the supplier to make a fair and comprehensive assessment of the client's requirements. The event should explain for the benefit of suppliers some history of the part or product being sourced and why the buyer is seeking to re-tender the part in such a way. Lastly and most important, the buyer should only initiate such an event if they are genuine in seeking a new supplier for the part.

Having searched wide and followed a robust quality first policy during the selection process, buyers should then evaluate offers on a total cost of ownership basis. Low unit costs can be rapidly eroded by increased inventory carrying costs, poor quality and increases in delivery costs and delays. Too often a low ex works unit price fails to equate into a reliable decrease in overall purchase costs because buyers do not make a comprehensive cost assessment of the offers available to them. A bidding event with quality as its main driver can help the buyer sort and weight suppliers' capabilities such that the best performing bidders from a price standpoint are assured to also be suppliers with low defects, high quality credentials and of sound financial performance. It is only at this point that the buyer can go deep, developing close and mutually supportive relationships with suppliers who have proved themselves genuinely competitive in an open bidding environment.

I would not pretend that running a successful lean sourcing program is a simple proposition. But it is a practical and highly desirable process for companies seeking substantial savings while enhancing their lean programs. By doing so, buyers can enjoy the dual benefits of securing significant double digit savings and holding on to them through further cost reductions over the life of the contract.

- Lisa Reisman (lreisman@aptiumglobal.com)

About Us | Advertise | Getting Started | How and Why | Contact Us   © 2004-2007 Spend Matters Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved.