Friday Rant: Reading Into the Analyst Layoffs
In recent weeks, both Gartner and AMR Research have announced material layoffs. Forrester is rumored to not be far behind. What does this mean for practitioners looking for advice and vendors looking to influence the analyst set? My fellow Enterprise Irregular, Dennis Howlett, offers some analysis over on ZDnet: "As the recession continues to bite, we will inevitably see consolidation of the analyst sector through attrition. Talking to boutique firms, some expect to do well but they attribute that to agility. The larger players -- like Gartner, Forrester and AMR are more sensitive to market change, principally because they depend on the vendor community to keep them afloat...[In regards to the layoffs] a couple of names on AMR's list stood out. Jonathan Yarmis was building himself a reputation on Twitter as AMR's 'emerging and disruptive technologies' unit. Lee Geishecker, formerly with Gartner was on the advisory services part of the house. Lee is well known as an expert on Oracle."
From a Spend Management perspective, I would not expect these layoffs to impact the coverage of the sector. Depending on the firm, I believe that it will continue to be equally as good or equally as bad as the past. I've spoken to a couple of analysts in our sector in the past month who forecast excellent 2009s for their P&Ls thanks to both vendor revenue and practitioner interest in this sector. However, the downturn will certainly give rise to potential independents who take on the larger analyst firms at more attractive price points. One such former analyst in the PLM sector is back on his own again. And I'd sooner take his advice than that of the larger firms given his individual expertise. I also know of at least one analyst covering the sector who is quietly evaluating options to change firms. This reinforces something I've always believed -- put your trust in the individual, not the brand behind the firm. Which as we know, can crumble quickly -- and take time to rebuild -- when a good analyst departs.
- Jason Busch
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Check the link(s) and the traffic sites like Alexa, Compete, Quantcast, Ranking, and TrafficEstimate. Although they're not that accurate, especially over short time-frames, they're directionally accurate, particularly over longer time-frames, and, day-in, day-out, the supply and spend management blogsphere as a whole gets bigger, badder, and better.
I understand that bloggers have a tendency to be kind to one another, since blogging is a relatively new phenomenon, but that reflexive civility probably should not continue. I believe that the time is rapidly approaching when quality blogs must explicitly disassociate themselves from poor work -- and, concomitantly, raise their own standards to the highest possible level.
Or, perhaps, the specific lines cross and the differences of analysts and bloggers begins to blur. Debbie Wilson is now blogging again. Does that make her an analyst or a blogger? I do more consulting, speaking and advisory work as a percentage of my time (though I'm making a point of changing this) than blogging. Much of this work could either be done by other analysts or specialized advisors. So am I a consultant/analyst or am a blogger? I don't think it matters anymore. But I'd hate to lose the moniker as blogger because when I go to parties at my kid's snooty private school with all the BCG partners, lawyers, etc. I love to say that I write a blog for a living. They don't know what to make of it. Which is exactly the point. Judge the individual voice, not the medium. Those who don't are cheating themselves of the best knowledge available to them.
(1) she doesn't post frequently, and
(2) she posts Pablum, since anything meaty is Gartner's to monetize.
Lot's of hype around analyst layoffs right now. What's more interesting is how the firms are going to re-focus their research focus and delivery in light of the economy. The use of blogging is going to be very interesting as clients demand quicker, punchier, more digestible insight. Mini-blog brands are developing, from analysts / consultants / journalists and other celebrities, but I only see a small % making it past a few months, and only a fraction of those are any good. You can literally count the number of good analyst-bloggers on two hands, so guys like you are definitely becoming mini "analyst/blog brands" in your own right. Wrote a little piece on this here:
http://fersht.typepad.com/the_outsourcing_bloghors...
PF.
You need two hands?!?
Please enlighten us ...
I've just been touring the blogs as part of my research on eSourcing, and found little to justify my search (present company excepted). There may be a few useful nuggets in amongst the "Dear diary, today I got up and made myself breakfast ..." stuff but who has the time to look for it? The other thing that irritates me is that they all include lots of links to other resources that turn out only to be sponsors' Web pages or incestuous paths back to the blog you were at 30 minutes ago. Wouldnt you rather come to an analyst web site that is packed full of informative, relevant and actionable material?
Your posts on the Emptoris/ Marlin transaction were great examples of what a blogger can do that an analyst cant (or rather shouldnt) do. The subsequent comments containing ill-informed speculation and unfounded predictions of doom showed the dangers of the medium. I think good blogs have their place, but they're not a threat to the syndicated research market.
I was being generous....
PF
I, too, struggled reading some of those comments from the Emptoris posts. Some were dangerous. But at least they came from all sides (canceling each other out, one wonders?) But I think it's important to give people the chance to respond and at the very least, call me out on things if they disagree. Such is the medium for the better or worse. I do not personally think the syndicated research model will ever die. It might change, value propositions will evolve, physical and digital media will shift (I remember when I received a 2 inch thick stack of briefs from analyst firms in print every month -- it was not that long ago)! But the core concept will remain.