A China Sourcing Summer Shutdown? This is Not an April Fools Joke ...
Over on All Roads, Richard Brubaker has the scoop that the Chinese government is considering seriously curtailing factory production between July 17th and September 20th of this year. This is not an April Fools joke (like my post about quitting this blog yesterday). According to Richard, the Chinese government is mandating certain businesses "to cease all manufacturing efforts near the large cities of Beijing, Tianjin, and even Shanghai due to serious pollution problems they are facing. Shut down will occur between July 17th though September 20, 2008 ... Now, before everyone freaks out, this is still very much speculation and I have been unable to confirm the scope of the shut down." Richard notes that his contacts in Beijing suggested that there are two manufacturing areas likely to be most impacted: "coal and raw material exploitation industries are expected to see shut downs (again, not sure of scope) [and] high energy users and heavy polluters". Stay tuned as this story develops. I'll keep Spend Matters readers in the loop as I learn more about what is going on. A final note: these rumored shutdowns are far more severe and widespread than what everyone expected from the factory closures due to the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing.
- Jason Busch
- Jason Busch
when I read you were throwing in the towel over my RSS reader.. I had to click through to see if I misread. So, you got me.
To your readers, I would like to stress that the origin of my post is a trusted source, and that while they have heard "all manufacturing" will be shut down... we are both skeptical of the scope/ duration.
With the start of the shut down being 3 weeks before the Olympics, I expect that you will first see heavy polluters and industry that requires large amounts of water in the areas of Beijing and Tianjin. they want clear skies, and enough water to get them through the games.
Following my original post, I began discussing the topic of logistics (I will post something more detailed shortly), and I suggest everyone plan ahead on this regardless. There have been public announcements that traffic controls will be strict, and you can expect a stoppage of many trucks as a part of this. So, even if you are operating at full capacity, you may find it difficult to move containers.
So, what to do? (1) At this point it is only rumor and speculation , so don't freak out (2) If you are in a highly polluting (air or water) industry, require a lot of energy, or suck up a lot of water.. you will be high on any list (3) Assess your risk, and make some preliminary plans (4) call your freight forwarder to get their views on the transport side. you may need to book container space in advance.
Jason - you will notice I moved the date on the post from April 1.. to April 2
Oh - if anyone does hear anything confirming the above, please let us know. Likewise, if you hear it is not true, please just let me know so I can act like I was just playing a April fools prank.
Having lived here for over 4 years, 888, the lucky dates of the start of the games, will be like a holiday, everyone watching the games, on TV or internet, especially diving, hurdles, badmininton, and table tennis... and the love of basketball. Production, and quality maybe a problem, as this is the first big national thing here, and I believe that if you need something shipped, do it in early to mid July. The hotel prices will go sky high in the popular cities, hoping visitors will go other places while here for the games, and so will intra country plane fares.
Some thoughts from Shenzhen, China