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January 06, 2009

 

Obama and Trade -- A Contrasting View

Spend Matters readers already know my views on Obama and trade. I believe that saying Obama is good for trade is the same as saying that Reagan was good for the unions -- you simply can't reconcile his philosophical beliefs, statements and Senate voting record with the openness required to embrace a truly free trade platform. Remember, he was the candidate who not-so-long ago championed the notion of "fair-trade" which as we all know, is not free trade at all. But there are those who disagree with my view on Obama and trade. Take Josh Green, CEO of Panjiva, who writes his company's blog. In a recent entry, Josh opines that "President Obama will be good for trade … President Obama will be far more pro-trade than his campaign statements would suggest … [and 2] President Obama will be more effective than his predecessor at facilitating new trade agreements." While I could not disagree more based on the special interests that put him in office -- not to mention his Senate voting record -- I certainly hope that President Obama proves me wrong.

- Jason Busch

Comments
Jason

Obama will be great for trade....that is the off shoring of US jobs, as the unions make US labor more uncompetitive.

Let's see if the bailout of GM goes through. If not then there may be hope.
# Posted By GBR | 11/18/08 4:34 AM
I am a conservative democrat who supports labor but has to deal with it. I work for a manufacturer that has been mentioned on this blog. The thought of the alternative (to Obama) scared me. However, the reality of labor gaining any more power in the economy scares me more. Outsourcing is difficult enough as it is to get past labor (just ask Boeing). We need a balance when it comes to labor and management power but never at the expense of commerce with our trading partners. Closing trade doors will hurt us in so many ways and will cost jobs at my company as exports drop.
# Posted By Can't Say | 11/18/08 6:38 AM
Yes, it's true that the unions played a role in electing Obama. However, unions these days seem less concerned about outsourcing and more concerned with their own declining membership rolls (hence the recent push for the Employee Free Choice Act). My hunch is that Obama will support the unions when it comes to the Auto Industry bailout, and he'll support the Employee Free Choice Act. However, when it comes to trade, Obama will either sidestep union pressure or include enough provisions to make it possible for free trade agreements to get through Congress. An early test of this hypothesis will be the Colombian trade deal. We'll see...
# Posted By Josh | 11/18/08 12:31 PM
Why is it that labor gets the blame? Look at one the best managed manufacturing companies in the USA or better yet the World - General Electric. They have unions in all of their manufacturing operations and they still make good money. Is by simple chance? I think no, rather believe that it has a whole lot to do with the management.

As for special interests, exactly who do you believe this special interests to be? The guy or gal that gave $50 on the internet.

Believe that you should be concentrating more on what your blog is suppose to about Supply Chain Management and a whole lot less on the those in Washington, for that is what I originally thought this blog was about!
# Posted By MIKE K | 11/18/08 2:44 PM
Mike K,

Thanks for chiming in. I believe that Spend Matters must get political. And when I refer to union self-interest, I am less concerned about wages than the "protection of jobs on US soil" or the familiar language we hear these days. That will lead to trade barriers, higher prices, reduced exports and a lot of other issues GE, CAT, Deere and many other industrial bellwethers are very nervous about given the situation in Washington starting next year. Moreover, these are issues impacting everybody that reads this blog, from those taking over outsourced procurement positions in India to those tasked with sourcing and selling globally. That's why I'm covering them. And my bias will always be towards free markets, not Democrats or Republicans. I've slammed Bush and I will slam Obama. But let's hope that he listens to the voices of the market and not those special interests that funded him. I suspect the economy is the one thing we have working in our favor -- if it was better, he would not have an excuse not to act on the pent-up Democratic protectionist fervor that's been simmering for years.
# Posted By Jason Busch | 11/18/08 5:33 PM
I'm certainly not an expert on this stuff, but I'm also not certain that rates of trade union participation necessarily correlate to export performance or broader economic performance. A country like the Netherlands, for example, has sustained a good level of GDP growth over time, while maintaining a significant positive trade balance (and government budget surpluses, for that matter), while also maintaining a trade union participation rate double that in the U.S. (Holland's rate of participation is declining, similar to rates elsewhere.) Belgium tells a similar story. One could argue that a country like Germany, for example, has suffered in terms of GDP growth due to higher levels of trade union participation and overall strength of the union movement, and that this has been reflected in higher unemployment rates. However, one could also suggest that lower levels of unionization within the U.S. have created pressures that have forced more workers out of the labor market in this country -- to the point that some economists have proposed that the actual unemployment rate in the U.S. is somewhere in the range of 11 percent. But like I said, I'm not an expert on this stuff. I understand that there is a considerable amount of hand-wringing in the business community about the potential for increased unionization, but I'd like to see some more research about the actual impact on competitiveness.
# Posted By Andrew Reese | 11/20/08 11:39 AM
There are two issues that need to be merged harmoniously (like the yin-yang symbol on the Korean flag) rather than being seen as conflict.

One is that the US (IMHO) is too far on the inequality side of the equality-inequality curve. Stronger unions give the less powerful more power and that currently is a good thing.

The other is that trade improves the standard of living of both countries if they specialize in what they do well.

Personally I think we (U.S) need to look inward a bit more, not by restricting trade but by reducing consumption and increasing investment in job-creating infrastructure improvements (or just infrastructure maintenance for heaven's sake.) We also need to learn to do more things better than anyone else. Biotech was to replace computer manufacturing and semiconductor manufacturing as our leading edge industry but has not proved significant yet. Something else needs to replace it as our center of excellence.
# Posted By Dick Locke | 11/21/08 6:18 AM
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