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March 12, 2010

 

A Supplier Bankruptcy Checklist

If you're a regular Spend Matters reader, I'd like to think that you're more sophisticated and open to new ideas than most in the procurement and supply chain sector. But even if you count yourself as open minded, you've probably not yet invested in a supply risk monitoring system designed to help predict potential supplier bankruptcies. A small minority of companies have, in fact, done so. While it's not too late, I suspect that if you've not invested in a system that looks at your entire supply base, there's a better than even chance you'll be dealing with a supplier bankruptcy in the coming months. To help preclude this looming specter, I suggest taking the following ten steps:



1) Develop a closer relationship with your suppliers that will allow you to sense that something is amiss before it's announced. Also, read between the lines of what they're telling you.

2) For strategic categories or those that are more difficult to switch out, consider developing an alternative supply list as a contingency -- even if you have no intent of using it unless you need to go to a plan B.

3) Aggressively monitor supplier performance (e.g., quality, on-time delivery, etc.). Performance related signals are often the most telling before a bankruptcy.

4) Network -- socially network if you can -- with others in similar category sourcing roles to pick up any dirt you can on the supply base.

5) Go on site visits -- with little notice. See how busy your suppliers look and talk to others besides the sales manager or account executive.

6) Put in place a rapid switchover process that you can execute more quickly than a regular supplier changeover and ramp-up period. Know what corners you can cut and those you can't before you need to use this process.

7) Consider holding additional inventory for categories with the most at-risk suppliers (e.g., those with ties to the automotive industry).

8) Approach at risk suppliers and renegotiate terms to provide more flexible early payment discount options and other contract elements that improve the order-to-cash lifecycle.

9) Consider 60/20/20 or 80/10/10 splits of business (or a similar model). Not only have Toyota and Honda learned that this sourcing approach can create more competition while improving supplier relationships -- it also creates a natural insurance policy.

10) As a last ditch effort, consider making strategic investments in suppliers that are simply too important to lose should they go out of business.

And one final suggestion. Buy supply risk insurance. That is, if Marsh is still offering it.

- Jason Busch

Comments
The ability to rapidly shift from a stricken supplier to another supplier will be critical over the next years because we often won't be able to identify who is going under and who is not. In this market, every supplier will put on a brave face even whilst the guilluitine slices through their neck. Witness Robert K Steele talking up Wachovia's prospects two weeks before their fire sale to Citigroup: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/business/30sorki...
# Posted By Doug Hudgeon | 10/20/08 3:34 PM
adding to #8: instituting a working capital mgmt regime (with analytics) would go a long way to measuring your suppliers' relative levels of desperation for cash and may actually save a couple in the short term.
# Posted By Money Talks | 10/21/08 7:52 AM
Another great way is to actually look into the supplier’s financial statements and find out where they stand. Look at important financial ratios like debt/equity, quick ratio and interest coverage. Look also at trends over the past few years.

For public companies you can get their financial data online. Private companies are a little more difficult to get financial information from...your only alternative is to ask. They should comply. After all, if you are going to entrust your supply chain to your supplier, the least they could do is assure you that they are financially viable. In my experience, over 50% of private companies are willing to provide financial information data without issue.

If supply chain professionals do not have the time or skills to complete supplier financial viability assessments they should ask their finance group for assistance or reach out to a third party assessment firm (for example: http://www.exervio.com/index.php?id=116) for support and guidance.

Fact:
Did you know that in 2008, over 43,000 businesses filed for bankruptcy in the USA, that's a 53% increase over 2007. 2009, so far, is looking even worse.
# Posted By Robert Rady-Pentek | 6/19/09 12:57 PM
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