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March 18, 2010

 

LCCS: You Get What You Pay For (and in Consumer Markets, Expect to Pay More)

For all of the parents in the Spend Matters audience, if someone asked you to suggest a premium you'd be willing to pay for safer toys, what would it be? 5%, 10%, 20%? According to a recent Chicago Tribune story, in 2008, "shoppers can expect price increases up to 10 percent next year to pay for increased vigilance by toymakers and stores after more than 3 million lead-tainted toys from China were recalled worldwide since June. That means a $6.99 Barbie doll could go up to about $7.70, or a $70 child-friendly digital camera could retail next year for almost $80.A 10 percent average increase would be the biggest one-time price hike in toys in several years, analysts say. And it's more than twice the government's measure of consumer inflation of 4.7 percent during the first seven months of this year." The article notes that the costs for fish and children's apparel will likely rise as well.



As I look at rising prices for cheap imported items like this, I find fascinating how long it's taking our expectations to catch up with market realities. Mattel and others have given us precisely what we’ve wanted from China and nothing more. And that's cheap prices. In industrial supply markets (e.g., automotive, A&D, etc.) China quality has amounted to exactly what the buying organization is willing to invest in. If they've wanted just cheap prices -- like toy importers -- that's what they've gotten. But the majority of those who have invested in quality, audit and supplier development programs have realized not only lower prices, but acceptable -- and in some cases exceptional -- quality levels as well. After all, you get out of China sourcing -- and global sourcing, for that matter -- exactly what you invest in it.

- Jason Busch

Comments
If you consider the weakening dollar, the inflation threat becomes even more tangible. What's more, this inflation will not be due to GDP growth; in fact some reports say GDP may grow only 1-2% over the next quarters. I am no economist, but to me it seems like the Fed may lower interest rates to boost growth at the cost of hammering the dollar even more. Which adds up to more inflation!
# Posted By SPMWise | 10/19/07 10:41 AM
Well said! Just like my old physics teachers use to say, you can not get more out than you put in!
# Posted By Mark Olejarczyk | 10/22/07 6:41 AM
What universe was your physics teacher living in?

Thanks to the miracle of black holes, you can get as much energy as you want if you can simply find a way to control the particle fountains that exist on the surface and make sure the positive matter particles fly outward and the negative anti-matter particles fly inward. Since all processes can be controlled by a finite amount of energy, and this can be repeated an infinite number of times, producing an infinite amount of energy, you can definately get more out than you put in if you're a physicist!

Alternatively, thanks to the fact that markets don't correct for over indulgences instantaneously, you can get more out than you put in the stock-market as well if you get lucky. (Of course, due to the randomness, you can also get a lot less out than you put in.)

And as a final example, I give you the US economy for most of the past 10 years ... seems to me there was a lot more value placed on what was coming out than there should have been based on what was being put in. (Of course, the economy is now paying for it ... but still ...)

Of course, you can place a time window on your argument and use a balancing argument and partially cancel out my third example, but thanks to inflation, my second example still appears to hold.

Contrarily yours.
# Posted By the doctor | 10/22/07 11:34 AM
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