Overcoming Mediocrity: Supply Excellence Chimes In
Check out Tim Minahan's detailed and timely critique of Forrester's findings from their recent supply chain survey. Given his background, Tim "the antidote to the pusher-man" Minahan is particular potent in this short entry. I particular like Tim’s analogy to addiction when it comes to ERP functionality extensions: "Just as an addict often acts irrationally, making decisions that are often against his or her self interest. Many companies continue to act the same way when selecting business software. Supply management executives often know their next ERP investment may be bad for them. They know there are "healthier" (read: more innovative) options available. And they know that with each new investment, they are becoming more beholden to their dealer ... er ERP provider. Yet they continue to buy that next module."
- Jason Busch
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Didn't happen, of course. A couple ERP vendors took an abortive stab at T&A, then ran for the hills when they realized how complicated it was.
Every vertical looks easy from the outside -- until you're on the inside. If there's wisdom to be dispensed to the young and the eager, that point would be high on my list.
I do dispute the logic of basing your argument on analyst predictions. Analyst predictions are only good until their disproven. (As a recently retired analyst, I can say stuff like that.) Gartner also predicted 20,000 e-marketplaces. ERP vendors took a stab at e-marketplaces too...and they're still digging out from that mess.
Also, to suggest that ERP vendors are on the "inside" or have a lock on all verticals and business processes is ludicrous. (And checking your web site, I would venture to guess that you would argue that ERP hasn't solved the spend data management issue.) For the past decade at least, ERP vendors have played a game of follow the innovators. (And, according to many of their customers, they have been slow to do so.)
If it weren't for the likes of i2, Manhattan, and more recently Optiant, the supply chain management software market -- and the supply chain discipline -- would have been starved for innovation. The same holds true for supply management, which would have remained a tactical backoffice function if it weren't for the inertia generated by innovative upstarts in the area of strategic sourcing, spending analysis, contract management, and supplier management.
I took my daughters to an terrifying exhibit on jelly fish at the New England Acquarium last week. Jelly fish are among the most rudimentary and oldest living organisms on the planet, yet they continue to thrive. They follow around fish to various feeding grounds, gobble up all the food supply, and eventually supplant all the fish. This phenomenon has nearly killed off the fish in the Baltic Sea.
This digression provides a good analogy for the supply management software industry. The ERP vendors continue to follow the innovative software (and now On Demand) providers, mimicking their functionality and capturing their food supply. If ERPs do take over as you suggest, business process innovation may go the way of the Baltic Sea. (And, to be clear, the analyst community would also starve. As a former analyst, that's a fate I'd rather not witness in my lifetime.)